Analysing Relationship between Economic Growth and Inflation and Unemployment Youth in Burundi. Elasticity and Threshold

Scientific Study from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Macro-economics, general, , language: English, abstract: The purpose of this study is to analyze the relationship between gross domestic product growth (GDPG) and inflation (INF), unemployment youth male (UNYM), and unemployment youth female (UNYF), to analyze the nature of elasticity, and to evaluate the threshold where GDPG changes. Time-series data covering 1970 -2018 were used to examine the impact of INF and UNYM, and UNYF on GDPG. To estimate the relationship between GDPG and INF and UNYM, and UNYF, regression analysis was performed. Rainbow test was used to test the linearity of the model, Breusch-Pagan test was used to test homoscedasticity, Box Ljung Test was used to test autocorrelation, Phillips-Perron Unit Root Test was used to test whether time series were stationary. Elasticity was applied to measure the degree of responsiveness of change in GDPG to changes in INF and UNYM, and UNYF levels. Data analysis was performed using R and JASP. Results revealed a statistically significant negative relationship between GDPG and INF, UNYM and UNYF. Moreover, the result showed that GDPG responded strongly towards change in inflation and unemployment youth. A threshold was found beyond which GDPG became negative while under the threshold, GDPG continued to grow. To increase economic growth, Burundi should reduce inflation and unemployment youth under the threshold. Burundi should also focus on reducing female unemployment rate as it has great impact on economic growth. Burundi should stimulate entrepreneurship as it contributes in new job creation.

Dr. Antoine NIYUNGEKO has more than 12 years working experience as Consultant in many business areas.He has a PhD in International Entrepreneurship, Master in Negociations and Sales Team Management, Master in Operational and Strategic Planning, and Master in Human Resources Management. He has created an audit and consultant firm ELAN CONSULT. The company is specialized in auditing, accounting, tax assistance, capacity building, and strategic planing. He has audited many company and projects. He has also trained workers from many companies.He has made 19 publications. Others are still under peer-review. He is a reviewer at Business & Economics journal which is indexed on Springer Nature. He is passionated by research. He has much skills in data analysis (qualitative and quantitative data). He has produced a practical guide of data analysis including useful statistical tests(regression, mediation, factor analysis, correlation, mean comparison, proportion comparision,etc). He speaks and write French, English, and Kirundi. He is in charge of research and data analysis in one local University.He actively in data analysis. He can be contacted on mail: niyungantoine@yahoo.fr. or by phone (+257) 75 997 606.